Abstract:

Objective To conduct a comprehensive review of functional prognosis prediction models for stroke patients，offering insights for clinical nursing practice and research. Methods A search was conducted across various databases including PubMed，Web of Science，Embase，CINAHL，Cochrane Library，China National Knowledge Infrastructure，Wanfang Database，VIP Database，and China Biomedical Literature Database from their inception to April 1，2024. There were 2 researchers who independently screened the literature，extracted data，and assessed the quality of the studies. Results The review included 19 studies on the development of functional prognosis prediction models for stroke patients，resulting in a total of 57 models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.730 to 0.974. External validation was performed for 3 of the models. Age，gender，NIHSS，and history of stroke emerged as the principal predictors in the functional prognosis prediction models for stroke patients. Conclusion Research on functional prognosis prediction models for stroke patients is still in its early stages，with models demonstrating reasonable predictive power but carrying a high risk of bias. Future studies should standardize model development and validation. The aim should be to create user-friendly models with strong predictive capabilities，thereby providing healthcare professionals with solid foundations for clinical decision-making.

Key words: Stroke, Functional Prognosis, Prediction, Model, Scoping Review, Nursing Care

摘要：

目的 对脑卒中患者功能预后预测模型进行范围综述，为临床护理实践及研究提供借鉴和启示。方法 检索PubMed、Web of Science、Embase、CINAHL、Cochrane Library、中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库及中国生物医学文献数据库中与运动功能预后主题相关的文献，检索时限为建库至2024年4月1日。由2名研究者独立筛选文献及提取数据，并对文献进行质量评价及内容总结分析。结果 纳入19篇脑卒中患者功能预后预测模型构建研究。共57个预测模型，其受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.730~0.974。其中3个模型进行了外部验证。年龄、性别、美国国立卫生研究院脑卒中量表评分、脑卒中病史为脑卒中患者功能预后预测模型中的主要预测因子。结论 脑卒中患者运动功能预后预测模型研究仍处于初步发展阶段，模型预测能力较好，但偏倚风险较高。未来研究应对模型的开发及验证做进一步的规范，开发预测性能良好、使用简便的预测模型，为医护人员提供高质量的临床决策依据。

关键词: 脑卒中, 功能预后, 预测, 模型, 范围综述, 护理