关键词: 肺疾病, 慢性阻塞性, 早期预警评分, Charlson合并症指数, 短期预后, 预测模型

Abstract: Objective To establish a predictive model suitable for emergency medical staff to evaluate the severity of patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AEC0PD), so as to better identify critical patients and provide timely treatment and nursing intervention. Methods The patients with AEC0PD who visited the emergency department from March 2017 to January 2018 were enrolled using convenience sampling method and divided into stable group and critical group. The data of the two groups were analyzed by univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis to establish the model and simplify it. Results A total of 142 patients were included in the study. Three factors including NEWS,CCI and age,entered the model. The AUC predicted by the model was 0.903[95%CI(0.845,0.960)]. With further simplifying the scoring rules,then AUC was 0.900. Conclusion The predictive model in this study can better predict the prognosis of patients with AEC0PD, and all the indicators are simple and easy to obtain, which is convenient for emergency clinical nursing to use.

Key words: Pulmonary Disease,Chronic 0bstructive, Early Warning Scores, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Short-term Prognosis, Prognostic Rules