高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎复发风险预测模型的范围综述

doi:10.3761/j.issn.0254-1769.2025.22.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的对高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎患者复发的风险预测模型进行范围综述，为临床决策提供参考。方法检索PubMed、Web of Science、Embase、CINAHL、Cochrane Library、中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库及中国生物医学文献数据库中与高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎患者复发风险预测的相关文献，检索时限为建库至2025年7月。由2名研究人员筛选文献、提取数据，并对文献进行质量评价及内容总结分析。结果共纳入13篇文献，包含13个风险预测模型，7个模型报告了受试者操作特征曲线下面积（0.656~0.962），9个模型进行了模型校准。年龄（年轻化）、合并糖尿病、合并高脂血症、急性胰腺炎严重程度、随访（12个月）甘油三酯水平≥5.6 mmol/L、持续使用降甘油三酯药物（≥3个月）是高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎复发风险预测模型中的主要预测因子。结论高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎复发风险预测模型尚处于发展阶段，模型预测能力较好，但偏倚风险较高。未来研究应对模型的开发及验证做进一步的规范，为医护人员提供高质量、实用性强的临床决策依据。

关键词: 高甘油三酯血症, 急性胰腺炎, 复发, 预测, 范围综述, 护理

Abstract:

Objective To systematically synthesize risk prediction models for recurrence in patients with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis（HTG-AP），providing evidence-based references to inform clinical decision-making. Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed across PubMed，Web of Science，Embase，CINAHL，Cochrane Library，CNKI，Wanfang Database，VIP Database，and CBM，covering all publications from database inception to July 2025. Totally 2 researchers independently conducted literature screening，data extraction，methodological quality assessment，and content synthesis. Results A total of 13 studies were included，encompassing 13 distinct risk prediction models. 7 models reported area under the curve（AUC） values ranging from 0.656 to 0.962，and 9 underwent calibration analysis. Younger age，comorbid diabetes mellitus，pre-existing hyperlipidemia，severity of acute pancreatitis，triglyceride levels≥5.6 mmol/L at 12-month follow-up，and sustained use of triglyceride-lowering medications（≥3 months） were identified as key predictors in the risk prediction models for recurrence of HTG-AP. Conclusion Risk prediction models for HTG-AP recurrence remain in the developmental stage. While these models demonstrate favorable predictive performance，they exhibit a high risk of bias. Future research should prioritize standardizing model development and validation protocols to provide healthcare professionals with high-quality，clinically practical tools for decision-making.

Key words: Hypertriglyceridemia, Acute Pancreatitis, Recurrence, Prediction, Scoping Review, Nursing Care

王文爽, 靳瑾, 刘夏, 杨洋, 王欣然. 高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎复发风险预测模型的范围综述[J]. 中华护理杂志, 2025, 60(22): 2798-2804.

WANG Wenshuang, JIN Jin, LIU Xia, YANG Yang, WANG Xinran. Scoping review of risk prediction models for recurrence of hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis[J]. Chinese Journal of Nursing, 2025, 60(22): 2798-2804.

图/表 4

表1 PubMed 检索策略

Table 1 PubMed search strategy

图1 文献筛选流程

Figure 1 Literature screening flow chart

表2 纳入文献基本特征（n=13）

Table 2 Basic characteristics of included literature（n=13）

表3 预测模型的偏倚风险评价（n=13）

Table 3 Risk of bias assessment for included prediction models（n=13）

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