关键词: 腹腔镜手术, 体温变化, 模型, 统计学, 手术室护理

Abstract:

Objective To construct a predictive model to assess the risk of intraoperative hypothermia during laparoscopic surgery,and to provide technical support for screening patients with high risk of intraoperative hypothermia during laparoscopic surgery.Methods A total of 264 patients were enrolled from January 2016 to December 2017,and risk factors between hypothermia group（116 cases） and non-hypothermia group（148 cases） were compared using logistic regression for model construction. The goodness of fit of the model was verified by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The predictive validity of the model was evaluated by the area under the ROC curve（AUC）. From January to December 2018,132 patients were recruited for application of the model.Results The incidence of hypothermia in this study was 43.93%（116/264）,and 41.66%（55/132）. The factors that ultimately entered the predictive model were basal body temperature（OR=0.296）,type of surgery（OR=1.457）,room temperature（OR=0.521）,and anesthesia time（OR=1.009）. H-L test P=0.123,the area under the ROC curve（AUC） was 0.791,while the Youden index was 0.867,with sensitivity as 0.60 and specificity as 0.867. The accuracy of the model was 79.54%,indicating the fit and predictive validity of the model were good.Conclusion The predictive model constructed in this study can predict the risk of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery,and thus can provide a reference for clinical screening of high-risk patients.

Key words: Laparoscopic Surgery, Body Temperature Changes, Models, Statistical, Operating Room Nursing