关键词: 重症监护病房, 谵妄, 风险预测模型

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effects of a risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in ICU patients after surgery. Methods A total of 240 ICU patients in a tertiary hospital were selected, and indicators of ICU postoperative delirium (ICU-P0D) group n=49) and non ICU-P0D group n=191) were compared. Logistic regression was used to establish a risk prediction model. The area under the R0C curve was used to test the model to predict the effects. Twenty-five patients were selected to evaluate the model’s effects. Results The study finally included POSSUM score (OR=4.259), acid-base imbalance (OR=28.731), diabetes (OR=2.699), hypertension (OR=2.055),and transient coma before admission(OR=10.719) to construct the risk prediction model. The model formula was:Z=0.121 × POSSUM + 2.519 × transient coma before admission +1.157 × hypertension + 1.004 × diabetes + 0.26 × acid-base imbalance -6.957,the area under the ROC curve of this model was 0.832,with the sensitivity of 0.639,the specificity of 0.886, the youden of 0.526. The model verification results showed the sensitivity of 60%，the specificity of 100%，and the accuracy of 92%. Conclusion The risk prediction model has satisfactory prediction effects. The risk prediction can be completed at the beginning of ICU stay,which can provide reference for preventative treatment and nursing measures for high-risk patients.

Key words: Intensive Care Units, Delirium, Risk Prediction Model